Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster

Hang Hyun Jo; Yu Li Ko

doi:10.1061/9780784413609.277

Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster

Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

Abstract

In order to account for large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster, we study a simple model by combining distributions of disaster and population/property with their spatial correlation. We assume fat-tailed or power-law distributions for disaster and population/property exposed to the disaster, and a constant vulnerability for exposed population/property. Our model suggests that the fat tail property of damage can be determined either by that of disaster or by those of population/property depending on which tail is fatter. It is also found that the spatial correlations of population/property can enhance or reduce the variance of damage depending on how fat the tails of population/property are. In case of tornadoes in the United States, we show that the damage does have fat tail property. Our results support that the standard cost-benefit analysis would not be reliable for social investment in vulnerability reduction and disaster prevention.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
Editors	Michael Beer, Siu-Kui Au, Jim W. Hall
Publisher	American Society of Civil Engineers
Pages	2744-2753
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Electronic)	9780784413609
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.277
Publication status	Published - 2014
MoE publication type	A4 Conference publication
Event	2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis - Liverpool, United Kingdom Duration: 13 Jul 2014 → 16 Jul 2014

Conference

Conference	2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis
Abbreviated title	ICVRAM; ISUMA
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Liverpool
Period	13/07/2014 → 16/07/2014

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10.1061/9780784413609.277

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Jo, H. H., & Ko, Y. L. (2014). Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster. In M. Beer, S.-K. Au, & J. W. Hall (Eds.), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 (pp. 2744-2753). American Society of Civil Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.277

Jo, Hang Hyun ; Ko, Yu Li. / Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. editor / Michael Beer ; Siu-Kui Au ; Jim W. Hall. American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014. pp. 2744-2753

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abstract = "In order to account for large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster, we study a simple model by combining distributions of disaster and population/property with their spatial correlation. We assume fat-tailed or power-law distributions for disaster and population/property exposed to the disaster, and a constant vulnerability for exposed population/property. Our model suggests that the fat tail property of damage can be determined either by that of disaster or by those of population/property depending on which tail is fatter. It is also found that the spatial correlations of population/property can enhance or reduce the variance of damage depending on how fat the tails of population/property are. In case of tornadoes in the United States, we show that the damage does have fat tail property. Our results support that the standard cost-benefit analysis would not be reliable for social investment in vulnerability reduction and disaster prevention.",

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publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers",

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Jo, HH & Ko, YL 2014, Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster. in M Beer, S-K Au & JW Hall (eds), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 2744-2753, 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, Liverpool, United Kingdom, 13/07/2014. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.277

Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster. / Jo, Hang Hyun; Ko, Yu Li.
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. ed. / Michael Beer; Siu-Kui Au; Jim W. Hall. American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014. p. 2744-2753.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

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Jo HH, Ko YL. Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster. In Beer M, Au SK, Hall JW, editors, Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers. 2014. p. 2744-2753 doi: 10.1061/9780784413609.277

Large variance and fat tail of damage by natural disaster

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