Is Ockham's razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony

Marina Dubova*, Suyog Chandramouli, Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter Grünwald, William Holmes, Tania Lombrozo, Marco Marelli, Sebastian Musslick, Bruno Nicenboim, Lauren N. Ross, Richard Shiffrin, Martha White, Eric Jan Wagenmakers, Paul Christian Bürkner, Sabina J. Sloman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D protein folding or climate forecasting). In this paper, we reexamine the parsimony principle in light of these scientific and technological advancements. We review recent developments, including the surprising benefits of modeling with more parameters than data, the increasing appreciation of the context-sensitivity of data and misspecification of scientific models, and the development of new modeling tools. By integrating these insights, we reassess the utility of parsimony as a proxy for desirable model traits, such as predictive accuracy, interpretability, effectiveness in guiding new research, and resource efficiency. We conclude that more complex models are sometimes essential for scientific progress, and discuss the ways in which parsimony and complexity can play complementary roles in scientific modeling practice.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2401230121
Pages (from-to)1-10
Number of pages10
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume122
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 Jan 2025
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • complexity
  • Ockham's razor
  • parsimony
  • scientific modeling

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