Informed investments in clean energy technologies

Jessika E. Trancik; Erin Baker; Gregory Nemet; Magdalena M. Klemun; Rebecca J. Hanes; Kavita Surana; Doug Arent; Samuel F. Baldwin; Steven A. Gabriel; Steven W. Popper; Valentina Bosetti; Max Henrion; Giacomo Marangoni; Rupert Way

doi:10.1038/s41560-025-01867-w

Informed investments in clean energy technologies

Jessika E. Trancik^*
, Erin Baker
, Gregory Nemet
, Magdalena M. Klemun
, Rebecca J. Hanes
, Kavita Surana
, Doug Arent
, Samuel F. Baldwin
, Steven A. Gabriel
, Steven W. Popper
, Valentina Bosetti
, Max Henrion
, Giacomo Marangoni
, Rupert Way

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed—for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1404-1411
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	10
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01867-w
Publication status	Published - Dec 2025
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

Authors from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE) under contract DE-AC36-08GO28308, were funded by the US DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Office of Strategic Programs. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the US Government. The US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes. We appreciate valuable discussions with the participants of the Workshop on Methods for R&D: Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 18–19 July 2019, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy20osti/75314.pdf .

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/s41560-025-01867-w

Cite this

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title = "Informed investments in clean energy technologies",

abstract = "Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed—for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.",

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AU - Arent, Doug

AU - Baldwin, Samuel F.

AU - Gabriel, Steven A.

AU - Popper, Steven W.

AU - Bosetti, Valentina

AU - Henrion, Max

AU - Marangoni, Giacomo

AU - Way, Rupert

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Informed investments in clean energy technologies

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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