Abstract
We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 21527-21532 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| Volume | 106 |
| Issue number | 51 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 22 Dec 2009 |
| MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Keywords
- Climate
- Global warming
- Ocean
- Projections
