Projects per year
Abstract
Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes.
Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 200-208 |
Number of pages | 9 |
Journal | Nature Sustainability |
Volume | 3 |
Issue number | 3 |
Early online date | 20 Jan 2020 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Mar 2020 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
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Dive into the research topics of 'Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Datasets
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Model output for: “Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries”
Gerten, D. (Contributor), Heck, V. (Contributor), Jägermeyr, J. (Contributor), Bodirsky, B. (Contributor), Fetzer, I. (Contributor), Jalava, M. (Creator), Kummu, M. (Creator), Lucht, W. (Contributor), Rockström, J. (Contributor), Schaphoff, S. (Contributor) & Schellnhuber, H. J. (Contributor), 1 Jan 2019
DOI: 10.5880/pik.2019.021, http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:4865888
Dataset
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SOS.aquaterra: Respecting safe operating spaces: opportunities to meet future food demand with sustainable use of water and land resources
Kummu, M., Chrysafi, A., Chrisendo, D., Sandström, V., Piipponen, J., Virkki, V., Porkka, M., Niva, V. & Hounkpatin, K.
01/04/2019 → 28/02/2025
Project: EU: ERC grants
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WASCO: Global Water Scarcity Atlas: understanding resource pressure, causes, consequences, and opportunities
Guillaume, J., Kummu, M. & Munia, H.
01/10/2016 → 30/09/2018
Project: Academy of Finland: Other research funding
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From Failand to Winland
Jalava, M., Kummu, M. & Lehikoinen, E.
01/04/2016 → 31/08/2019
Project: Academy of Finland: Strategic research funding