Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human  error in winter navigation

Osiris Valdez Banda; Floris Goerlandt; Pentti Kujala; Jakub Montewka

doi:10.1201/b19094-413

Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation

Osiris Valdez Banda, Floris Goerlandt, Pentti Kujala, Jakub Montewka

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Navigation in ice conditions possess a higher degree of complexity than open water navigation. This complexity has a significant influence in the human performance during the execution of operations. In this paper, a detailed expert elicitation to assess Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and proposed Risk Control Options (RCOs) in the performance of winter navigation is presented. For this purpose, an evaluation of the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) of winter navigation operations and the influence from proposed RCOs is elaborated. The process includes the estimation of cognitive failure probabilities extracted from the experts’ elicitation which are subsequently integrated into a Bayesian network model. The results of this analysis identified the operations with the highest need for new actions which can reduce the HEPs. Moreover, actions such as the improvement of winter navigational training, safety and risk management, and electronic navigation support, are identified as key measures to improve human performance.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015
Subtitle of host publication	Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
Editors	Luca Podofillini, Bruno Sudret, Bozidar Stojadinovic, Enrico Zio, Wolfgang Kröger
Publisher	CRC Press
Pages	3137-3146
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Electronic)	978-1-315-64841-5
ISBN (Print)	978-1-138-02879-1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1201/b19094-413
Publication status	Published - 19 Sept 2015
MoE publication type	A4 Article in a conference publication
Event	European Safety and Reliability Conference - Zurich, Switzerland Duration: 7 Sept 2015 → 10 Sept 2015 Conference number: 25 http://www.esrahomepage.org/conferences.aspx

Conference

Conference	European Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated title	ESREL
Country/Territory	Switzerland
City	Zurich
Period	07/09/2015 → 10/09/2015
Internet address	http://www.esrahomepage.org/conferences.aspx

Access to Document

10.1201/b19094-413

OpenUrl availability

Full text

Cite this

Valdez Banda, O., Goerlandt, F., Kujala, P., & Montewka, J. (2015). Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation. In L. Podofillini, B. Sudret, B. Stojadinovic, E. Zio, & W. Kröger (Eds.), European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London. (pp. 3137-3146). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/b19094-413

Valdez Banda, Osiris ; Goerlandt, Floris ; Kujala, Pentti et al. / Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation. European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.. editor / Luca Podofillini ; Bruno Sudret ; Bozidar Stojadinovic ; Enrico Zio ; Wolfgang Kröger. CRC Press, 2015. pp. 3137-3146

@inproceedings{5ba5006b0ae246e98efe54621f65c1f8,

title = "Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation",

abstract = "Navigation in ice conditions possess a higher degree of complexity than open water navigation. This complexity has a significant influence in the human performance during the execution of operations. In this paper, a detailed expert elicitation to assess Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and proposed Risk Control Options (RCOs) in the performance of winter navigation is presented. For this purpose, an evaluation of the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) of winter navigation operations and the influence from proposed RCOs is elaborated. The process includes the estimation of cognitive failure probabilities extracted from the experts{\textquoteright} elicitation which are subsequently integrated into a Bayesian network model. The results of this analysis identified the operations with the highest need for new actions which can reduce the HEPs. Moreover, actions such as the improvement of winter navigational training, safety and risk management, and electronic navigation support, are identified as key measures to improve human performance.",

author = "{Valdez Banda}, Osiris and Floris Goerlandt and Pentti Kujala and Jakub Montewka",

year = "2015",

month = sep,

day = "19",

doi = "10.1201/b19094-413",

language = "English",

isbn = "978-1-138-02879-1",

pages = "3137--3146",

editor = "Luca Podofillini and Bruno Sudret and Stojadinovic, {Bozidar } and Zio, {Enrico } and Kr{\"o}ger, {Wolfgang }",

booktitle = "European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015",

publisher = "CRC Press",

address = "United States",

note = "European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL ; Conference date: 07-09-2015 Through 10-09-2015",

url = "http://www.esrahomepage.org/conferences.aspx",

}

Valdez Banda, O, Goerlandt, F, Kujala, P & Montewka, J 2015, Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation. in L Podofillini, B Sudret, B Stojadinovic, E Zio & W Kröger (eds), European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.. CRC Press, pp. 3137-3146, European Safety and Reliability Conference, Zurich, Switzerland, 07/09/2015. https://doi.org/10.1201/b19094-413

Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation. / Valdez Banda, Osiris; Goerlandt, Floris; Kujala, Pentti et al.
European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.. ed. / Luca Podofillini; Bruno Sudret; Bozidar Stojadinovic; Enrico Zio; Wolfgang Kröger. CRC Press, 2015. p. 3137-3146.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Scientific › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation

AU - Valdez Banda, Osiris

AU - Goerlandt, Floris

AU - Kujala, Pentti

AU - Montewka, Jakub

N1 - Conference code: 25

PY - 2015/9/19

Y1 - 2015/9/19

N2 - Navigation in ice conditions possess a higher degree of complexity than open water navigation. This complexity has a significant influence in the human performance during the execution of operations. In this paper, a detailed expert elicitation to assess Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and proposed Risk Control Options (RCOs) in the performance of winter navigation is presented. For this purpose, an evaluation of the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) of winter navigation operations and the influence from proposed RCOs is elaborated. The process includes the estimation of cognitive failure probabilities extracted from the experts’ elicitation which are subsequently integrated into a Bayesian network model. The results of this analysis identified the operations with the highest need for new actions which can reduce the HEPs. Moreover, actions such as the improvement of winter navigational training, safety and risk management, and electronic navigation support, are identified as key measures to improve human performance.

AB - Navigation in ice conditions possess a higher degree of complexity than open water navigation. This complexity has a significant influence in the human performance during the execution of operations. In this paper, a detailed expert elicitation to assess Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and proposed Risk Control Options (RCOs) in the performance of winter navigation is presented. For this purpose, an evaluation of the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) of winter navigation operations and the influence from proposed RCOs is elaborated. The process includes the estimation of cognitive failure probabilities extracted from the experts’ elicitation which are subsequently integrated into a Bayesian network model. The results of this analysis identified the operations with the highest need for new actions which can reduce the HEPs. Moreover, actions such as the improvement of winter navigational training, safety and risk management, and electronic navigation support, are identified as key measures to improve human performance.

U2 - 10.1201/b19094-413

DO - 10.1201/b19094-413

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 978-1-138-02879-1

SP - 3137

EP - 3146

BT - European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015

A2 - Podofillini, Luca

A2 - Sudret, Bruno

A2 - Stojadinovic, Bozidar

A2 - Zio, Enrico

A2 - Kröger, Wolfgang

PB - CRC Press

T2 - European Safety and Reliability Conference

Y2 - 7 September 2015 through 10 September 2015

ER -

Valdez Banda O, Goerlandt F, Kujala P, Montewka J. Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation. In Podofillini L, Sudret B, Stojadinovic B, Zio E, Kröger W, editors, European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.. CRC Press. 2015. p. 3137-3146 doi: 10.1201/b19094-413