Expert elicitation of Risk Control Options to reduce human error in winter navigation

Osiris Valdez Banda, Floris Goerlandt, Pentti Kujala, Jakub Montewka

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)


Navigation in ice conditions possess a higher degree of complexity than open water navigation. This complexity has a significant influence in the human performance during the execution of operations. In this paper, a detailed expert elicitation to assess Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) and proposed Risk Control Options (RCOs) in the performance of winter navigation is presented. For this purpose, an evaluation of the Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) of winter navigation operations and the influence from proposed RCOs is elaborated. The process includes the estimation of cognitive failure probabilities extracted from the experts’ elicitation which are subsequently integrated into a Bayesian network model. The results of this analysis identified the operations with the highest need for new actions which can reduce the HEPs. Moreover, actions such as the improvement of winter navigational training, safety and risk management, and electronic navigation support, are identified as key measures to improve human performance.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Zurich, Switzerland. 15-19.09.2015
Subtitle of host publicationSafety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems – Podofillini et al. (Eds) © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
EditorsLuca Podofillini, Bruno Sudret, Bozidar Stojadinovic, Enrico Zio, Wolfgang Kröger
PublisherCRC Press
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-315-64841-5
ISBN (Print)978-1-138-02879-1
Publication statusPublished - 19 Sept 2015
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference - Zurich, Switzerland
Duration: 7 Sept 201510 Sept 2015
Conference number: 25


ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference
Abbreviated titleESREL
Internet address


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