EUROPEAN ENERGY EFFICIENCY and DECARBONIZATION STRATEGIES beyond 2030-A SECTORAL MULTI-MODEL DECOMPOSITION

Hannah Förster*, Katja Schumacher, Enrica De Cian, Michael Hübler, Ilkka Keppo, Silvana Mima, Ronald D. Sands

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long term. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1340004
JournalClimate Change Economics
Volume4
Issue numbersupp01
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2013
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • decarbonization
  • Decomposition analysis
  • model intercomparison

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