TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating Brazilian states’ demands for intensive care unit and clinical hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: development of a predictive model
AU - Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas
AU - Conceição, Samuel Vieira
AU - Pinto, Luiz Ricardo
AU - Horta, Cláudia Júlia Guimarães
AU - Magalhães, Virgínia Silva
AU - de Campos, Francisco Carlos Cardoso
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by Associação Paulista de Medicina.
PY - 2021/3/1
Y1 - 2021/3/1
N2 - BACKGROUND: The fragility of healthcare systems worldwide had not been exposed by any pandemic until now. The lack of integrated methods for bed capacity planning compromises the effectiveness of public and private hospitals’ services. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision of intensive care unit and clinical beds for Brazilian states, using an integrated model. DESIGN AND SETTING: Experimental study applying healthcare informatics to data on COVID-19 cases from the official electronic platform of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: A predictive model based on the historical records of Brazilian states was developed to estimate the need for hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The proposed model projected in advance that there was a lack of 22,771 hospital beds for Brazilian states, of which 38.95% were ICU beds, and 61.05% were clinical beds. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach provides valuable information to help hospital managers anticipate actions for improving healthcare system capacity.
AB - BACKGROUND: The fragility of healthcare systems worldwide had not been exposed by any pandemic until now. The lack of integrated methods for bed capacity planning compromises the effectiveness of public and private hospitals’ services. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision of intensive care unit and clinical beds for Brazilian states, using an integrated model. DESIGN AND SETTING: Experimental study applying healthcare informatics to data on COVID-19 cases from the official electronic platform of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: A predictive model based on the historical records of Brazilian states was developed to estimate the need for hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The proposed model projected in advance that there was a lack of 22,771 hospital beds for Brazilian states, of which 38.95% were ICU beds, and 61.05% were clinical beds. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach provides valuable information to help hospital managers anticipate actions for improving healthcare system capacity.
KW - Bed occupancy
KW - Coronavirus infections
KW - Hospital bed capacity
KW - Pandemics
KW - Public health administration
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85104047216&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33729421/
U2 - 10.1590/1516-3180.2020.0517.r1.0212020
DO - 10.1590/1516-3180.2020.0517.r1.0212020
M3 - Article
C2 - 33729421
AN - SCOPUS:85104047216
SN - 1516-3180
VL - 139
SP - 178
EP - 185
JO - Sao Paulo Medical Journal
JF - Sao Paulo Medical Journal
IS - 2
ER -