Energy supply structure optimization of integrated energy system considering load uncertainty at the planning stage

Under the trend of global carbon neutrality, the integrated energy system with the characteristics of multi-energy scheduling and gradient utilizing will be widely constructed and applied in the future energy market. For the construction of energy systems in emerging building complex, this paper analyzes the load probability characteristics of regional building complex at the planning stage, and conducts an aggregation analysis of its multiple uncertainties, and obtains the conclusion that the load factor at time t obeys the normal distribution. In order to formulate this uncertainty, this paper combines the case study with the scenario analysis method containing scenario generation and reduction to transform the stochastic programming model into several deterministic models and analyses the discrepancies of the optimization results under different objectives and different load variances. The results show that after considering load-side uncertainty, the total system capacity increases by 7 %, the total investment under the minimum investment objective by 4 %, and the carbon emission under the minimum carbon emission objective by 3 %. In addition, the system needs to pay 32.8 % of the total investment increment to obtain 80 % carbon reduction when adopting carbon emissions as the objective.