TY - JOUR
T1 - Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses
AU - Zamanipour, Behzad
AU - Ghadaksaz, Hesam
AU - Keppo, Ilkka
AU - Saboohi, Yadollah
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors
PY - 2023/1/15
Y1 - 2023/1/15
N2 - The impacts of climate change such as water scarcity and air temperature increase affect the development of the electricity supply system. In countries like Iran, where cooling demand in the residential sector is high and water availability is fairly low, this can create significant challenges. In this study, an econometric approach was used to project the electricity demand for four sectors in Iran, considering the effect of changing air temperature. Also, the impact of water scarcity on the optimal expansion of the power system was investigated using TIMES, a bottom-up energy system optimization modeling platform, to build a model for the Iranian electricity system with each power plant unit modeled separately. The option of switching cooling technology was also included in the modeling. The results show that a fuel price increase alters the optimal capacity and cooling technology portfolio substantially. Renewables become more desirable under the scenarios in which the fuels and water prices, as well as the carbon taxes, are high. The emissions increase in all scenarios, although the carbon tax moderates this increase. The water withdrawal declines in the high water price scenarios. The sensitivity analysis of water price revealed the effect of this parameter on water withdrawal.
AB - The impacts of climate change such as water scarcity and air temperature increase affect the development of the electricity supply system. In countries like Iran, where cooling demand in the residential sector is high and water availability is fairly low, this can create significant challenges. In this study, an econometric approach was used to project the electricity demand for four sectors in Iran, considering the effect of changing air temperature. Also, the impact of water scarcity on the optimal expansion of the power system was investigated using TIMES, a bottom-up energy system optimization modeling platform, to build a model for the Iranian electricity system with each power plant unit modeled separately. The option of switching cooling technology was also included in the modeling. The results show that a fuel price increase alters the optimal capacity and cooling technology portfolio substantially. Renewables become more desirable under the scenarios in which the fuels and water prices, as well as the carbon taxes, are high. The emissions increase in all scenarios, although the carbon tax moderates this increase. The water withdrawal declines in the high water price scenarios. The sensitivity analysis of water price revealed the effect of this parameter on water withdrawal.
KW - Climate change
KW - Electricity demand
KW - Electricity supply system
KW - Greenhouse gas emissions
KW - Water
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85141973594&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2022.126118
DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2022.126118
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85141973594
SN - 0360-5442
VL - 263, part E
JO - Energy
JF - Energy
M1 - 126118
ER -
