Comprehensiveness of scenarios in the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

E. Tosoni*, A. Salo, J. Govaerts, E. Zio

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The comprehensiveness of scenarios for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories has been studied from many perspectives. In this paper, we offer a generalized interpretation thereof through an explicit quantification of residual uncertainty, which makes it possible to derive conclusive statements about the safety of the repository. To support the operational evaluation of comprehensiveness, we develop a probabilistic methodology which uses set inclusion to capture epistemic uncertainties and propagates these in Bayesian networks to obtain bounds on the probability that the reference safety threshold is violated. We also present analyses which can help in achieving comprehensiveness and describe a novel algorithm for the efficient selection of computer-simulation inputs. The methodology is illustrated with a case study on a near-surface repository in Belgium.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)561-573
Number of pages13
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume188
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2019
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • Bayesian Networks
  • Comprehensiveness
  • Safety Assessment
  • Scenario Analysis
  • Uncertainty

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