Abstract
Climate change is currently one of the most compelling global threats, and energy sector accounts for almost two thirds of all emissions related to the climate change. Therefore, national energy systems face conflicting pressure to supply the ever-increasing demand for energy while decarbonising energy production. Under this pressure, concern over energy security has increased. The most topical energy security concerns in the Finnish energy market are generation adequacy and import dependence. This dissertation examines these themes along with other market-related energy security risks in the Finnish context.
This dissertation analyses energy security in the Finnish energy system by examining various scenarios in investment, the future of combined heat and power (CHP) production, the impacts of a severe drought, and import dependence. The research is done in collaboration with multiple researchers from other disciplines such as law and environmental and political sciences. Generation adequacy in the Finnish energy system is analysed by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool. The impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system are analysed by combining hydrological and energy system modelling. Generation capacity investment prospects, particularly those of biomass-based CHP production, are analysed by applying the net present value (NPV) and levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) methods. Energy security issues related to a plausible decrease in the Finnish CHP capacity are analysed on a city-level (Helsinki) by applying quantitative modelling, and on national and international levels, by qualitative assessment. Finland's dependence on Russian energy import currently is analysed by applying the interdependence framework, and the future development of the energy-trade is studied by developing and analysing energy policy scenarios until 2040.
The results indicate that the Finnish energy system is currently well prepared against technical faults. Despite the public concern, challenges with generation adequacy due to technical reasons are improbable. A severe, multiyear drought in the Nordic area could affect generation adequacy in Finland particularly via reduced availability of electricity import during peak demand periods. Despite the high thermal efficiency of CHP production, the Finnish energy system would most probably function even if the capacity decreased notably in the 2020s. Finland's notable import dependence on Russian energy import has so far not resulted in any disruptions in security of supply, and the dependence is likely to decrease in the future. However, energy trade between the countries goes beyond techno-economic aspects, and it is difficult to predict the energy security implications of geopolitical and societal trends.
Translated title of the contribution | Poikkitieteellinen analyysi energiaturvallisuusriskeistä Suomen energiamarkkinoilla |
---|---|
Original language | English |
Qualification | Doctor's degree |
Awarding Institution |
|
Supervisors/Advisors |
|
Publisher | |
Print ISBNs | 978-952-60-8451-0 |
Electronic ISBNs | 978-952-60-8452-7 |
Publication status | Published - 2019 |
MoE publication type | G5 Doctoral dissertation (article) |
Keywords
- energy security
- energy system analysis
- generation adequacy
- import dependence