An intelligent method for real-time ship collision risk assessment and visualization

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Abstract

Ship collision attracts prevalent attention due to its high occurrence frequency and severe potential conse-quence. It is therefore of pressing importance to prevent ship collision at sea for safe maritime transporta-tion. Non-linear Velocity Obstacle (NL-VO) algorithm has received increasing attention in maritime colli-sion avoidance by taking the dynamics of ship action during the encounter process into consideration. How-ever, one precondition of NL-VO algorithm is that the trajectory of target ship needs to be known in ad-vance, which makes the application of this algorithm limited in the historical ship collision risk analysis ra-ther than the in real-time collision avoidance. Although the generalized velocity obstacle algorithm over-comes this limitation using the trajectory prediction module, the trajectory uncertainty of the target ship is not discussed leading to the possible inaccurate collision risk assessment. Therefore, this paper presents a real-time collision risk assessment method based on an improved NL-VO algorithm by including the uncer-tainty analysis of the target ship’s predicted trajectory. The proposed method consists of two main modules: trajectory uncertainty module assumes that the increase in the radius of the circular restricted area is con-sistent with the Wiener process; collision risk assessment module utilizes the non-linear velocity obstacle algorithm combined with the dynamic circular restricted area to evaluate the potential collisions. Several encounter scenarios in a specific port channel are designed to demonstrate the feasibility of using this pro-posed method to assess ship collision risk in real-time. The result shows that this improved NL-VO algo-rithm can timely identify a ship that is in danger of colliding with the own ship and know when the collision will occur, which contributes to reducing ship collision occurrence probability.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDevelopments in the Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures
EditorsCarlos Guedes Soares
Publication statusPublished - 21 Oct 2019
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventInternational Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures - Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 21 Oct 201923 Oct 2019
Conference number: 8

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures
Abbreviated titleICCGS
CountryPortugal
CityLisbon
Period21/10/201923/10/2019

    Research areas

  • collision risk, NL-VO algorithm, trajectory uncertainty

ID: 38668313