An approach for an integrated assessment of maritime accidental oil spill risk and response effectiveness for the Northern Baltic Sea

Despite significant decreases in maritime accident rates and volumes of accidentally spilled oil over the past decades, major maritime oil spills remain high on the list of concerns of environmental protection agencies of coastal states, because of which appropriate response capabilities are maintained. In the Northern Baltic Sea, winter conditions are characterized by a periodical sea ice cover. Resulting navigational operations correspond to particular oil spill risks. This paper presents an approach to develop a tool for assessing accidental oil spill risks from shipping, and the effectiveness of oil spill response in different conditions in an integrated manner. As the tool itself is currently is under development, focus is on the underlying conceptual basis and the overall layout of the model. The main purpose of the tool is to support strategic decision making concerning the required capacity for spill response in sea ice conditions in different areas of the Northern Baltic, and to identify conditions for which additional risk mitigating measures should be prioritized. This article provides the background of the tool development, its underlying conceptual and methodological basis, and a general overview of the layout of the elements included in the model.