A probabilistic model for ship performance in ice based on full-scale data

Fang Li, Jakub Montewka, Floris Goerlandt, Pentti Kujala

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionScientificpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)


Navigation in ice covered waters is a challenging and hazardous activity, threatening the ship herself and the environment. Proper evaluation of the attainable ship speed in ice prior to setting off the journey is essential to mitigate the risk of besetting in ice which may cause further damages. The majority of the existing models evaluating ship speed in ice are physics-driven requiring detailed, not always accessible, input data, thus featuring high uncertainty. In this paper we propose an event-oriented model, reflecting the ice features under which an event of interest occurs (a given speed interval or a significant speed drop). To this end we utilize a large set of full-scale data and Bayesian learning algorithm to organize the data into a probabilistic model linking the ice conditions with the ship speed. Conditional probabilities are derived from the detailed dataset obtained in the course of full-scale tests of S.A. Agulhas II (ice class PC 5) carried out in the Baltic Sea in 2012. A set of parameters related to ice conditions; rudder and engine settings are recorded with the use of on board instruments. Ice thickness is measured with the use of electromagnetic device. Various types of ice navigation are performed i.e. steaming straight through the level and ridged ice as well as in ice channel. The model yields the probability of a certain speed under given ice conditions, and has application potential in risk assessment of besetting in ice or route finding problem. This approach could be developed further e.g. by incorporating other types of maneuvers.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 4th International Conference on Transportation Information Safety, ICTIS 2017
Number of pages7
ISBN (Print)978-1-5386-0437-3
Publication statusPublished - 2017
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
EventInternational Conference on Transportation Information and Safety - Banff, Canada
Duration: 8 Aug 201710 Aug 2017
Conference number: 4


ConferenceInternational Conference on Transportation Information and Safety
Abbreviated titleICTIS


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