A probabilistic method for long-term estimation of ice loads on ship hull

Fang Li*, Mikko Suominen, Liangliang Lu, Pentti Kujala, Rocky Taylor

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
28 Downloads (Pure)


Ships navigating in ice-infested regions need strengthened hull to resist the loads arising from the interactions with ice. Correct estimation of the maximum ice loads a ship may encounter during its lifetime is of vital importance for the design of ship structures. Due to the stochastic nature of ice properties and interaction processes, probabilistic approaches are useful to make long-term estimations of local ice loads on the hull. The Event Maximum Method (EMM) is an existing probabilistic approach for the long-term estimation of ice loads on the hull. This paper aims to extend the current EMM, first by introducing a model for the intercept of the linear regression line on the abscissa in order to quantify this value. Moreover, ice concentration is considered in the extended method as the second ice condition parameter in addition to thickness. The proposed method is applied to the full-scale measurement of the ship S.A. Agulhas II using the data obtained from the 2018/19 Antarctic voyage. The obtained model is then validated against six-year measurement data from 2013 to 2019, which shows reasonable similarity.

Original languageEnglish
Article number102130
Number of pages19
Early online date21 Jul 2021
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2021
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


  • Event Maximum Method
  • Full-scale measurement
  • Ice load
  • Ice-going ships
  • Long-term estimation
  • Probabilistic method


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