A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review
This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters.
Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.
|Journal||Reliability Engineering and System Safety|
|Publication status||Published - 2014|
|MoE publication type||A1 Journal article-refereed|
- Maritime transportation, RoPax safety, Risk analysis, Bayesian Belief Networks, F–N diagram, Ship–ship collision