A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping

Shanshan Fu, Yuerong Yu, Jihong Chen*, Yongtao Xi, Mingyang Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

89 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The melting of Arctic Sea ice has significantly facilitated Arctic shipping. However, such increased shipping has brought about higher maritime accidents in Arctic waters, especially for grounding and fire/explosion accidents. The paper presents a framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in Arctic shipping by developing an accident map (AcciMap) - Bayesian network (BN) model. First, the potential risk factors for grounding accidents in the Arctic shipping were identified according to 322 maritime accident investigation reports (MAIRs) - 299 global MAIRs of grounding accidents (including 5 in Arctic waters) and 23 MAIRs (except grounding accidents) in Arctic waters and related literature. Consequently, an AcciMap model is developed for describing the evolution of grounding accident scenarios and reflecting the interdependency of the identified risk factors. Then, a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the probability and severity of the grounding accident for presenting a convincing justification for risk control options (RCOs). The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of a cruise ship grounding accident in Arctic waters. Results demonstrate (1) improved understanding of cruise ship grounding risk factors related to government supervision, shipping company management, technical and operational management, unsafe incidents and behaviors, and environmental conditions; (2) quantitative analysis of the evolution of grounding accident and better identification of the critical risk factors; (3) determination of RCOs for risk management in Arctic shipping.

Original languageEnglish
Article number108706
Number of pages15
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume226
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • AcciMap
  • Arctic shipping
  • Bayesian network
  • Grounding
  • Maritime accident investigation reports
  • Quantitative risk assessment
  • Risk control options

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this