Abstract
Power output of wind generators is always associated with some uncertainties due to wind speed and other weather parameters alteration, and precise short-term forecasts are essential for their efficient operation. This can efficiently support transmission and distribution system operators and schedulers to improve the power network control and management. In this paper, we propose a double stage hierarchical particle swarm optimization trained artificial neural network (double-stage hybrid PS-ANN) model for short-term wind power prediction of a microgrid wind farm in Beijing, China. The model has two hierarchical stages. The first PS-ANN stage employs numerical weather prediction (NWP) meteorological parameters to forecast wind speed at the wind farm exact site and turbine hub height. The second stage models the actual wind speed and power relationships. Then, the predicted next day's wind speed by the first stage is applied to the second stage to forecast next day's wind power. The proposed approach has attained significant prediction accuracy improvements. The performance of the proposed model is compared with other two prediction approaches and showed best accuracy improvement than both methods.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings of the IEEE 2nd International Conference on Cloud Computing and Big Data Analysis, ICCCBDA 2017 |
Publisher | IEEE |
Pages | 489-493 |
Number of pages | 5 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 978-1-5090-4499-3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2017 |
MoE publication type | A4 Article in a conference publication |
Event | IEEE International Conference on Cloud Computing and Big Data Analysis - Chengdu, China Duration: 28 Apr 2017 → 30 Apr 2017 Conference number: 2 |
Conference
Conference | IEEE International Conference on Cloud Computing and Big Data Analysis |
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Abbreviated title | ICCCBDA |
Country | China |
City | Chengdu |
Period | 28/04/2017 → 30/04/2017 |
Keywords
- Artificial neural network
- Numerical weather prediction
- Particle swarm optimization
- Prediction
- Wind power
- Spatial correlation
- Speed prediction
- Neural-networks