A Bayesian network risk model for predicting ship besetting in ice during convoy operations along the Northern Sea Route

Sheng Xu*, Ekaterina Kim, Stein Haugen, Mingyang Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

51 Citations (Scopus)
172 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

To facilitate shipping in ice and to meet the increasing requirements of icebreaker services, convoy operations are the most effective alternative. However, convoy operations are among the most dangerous operations as they can result in ship-ship collisions and/or ship besetting in ice. To safeguard the assisted ships and improve the efficiency of convoy operations, predicting the besetment event is a paramount proactive measure. In this study, a Bayesian Network model is developed to predict the probability of ship besetting in ice in a convoy operation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The model focuses on the first-assisted ship and is based on expert elicitation. Correspondingly, four scenarios that may result in the first assisted ship besetting in ice have been identified. Further, the applicability of the model is evaluated through 12 scenarios derived from the real NSR voyage of ‘TIAN YOU’ assisted by the icebreaker ‘VAYGACH’ in August 2018. The results of the model evaluation and validity studies indicate that the developed model is feasible and can adequately predict the besetment event of the first assisted ship in convoy operations. The most important factors contributing to besetting in ice were found to be ice concentration, distance between icebreaker and ship, and navigation experience.

Original languageEnglish
Article number108475
Number of pages14
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume223
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • Bayesian Network
  • Convoy operations
  • Maritime safety
  • Northern Sea Route
  • Ship besetting in ice

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A Bayesian network risk model for predicting ship besetting in ice during convoy operations along the Northern Sea Route'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this