A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland, supplement to: Montewka, Jakub; Weckström, Mia; Kujala, Pentti (2013): A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - A case study for the [...]

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. The attached model is developed using Bayesian Networks modeling environment called Hugin.